Tropical Depression

All posts tagged Tropical Depression

This is a closeup live loop of Tropical Depression Nine. (NOAA/Satellite)

By AccuWeather

Tropical Depression Nine developed just south of Florida on Sunday and will turn toward the northeastern Gulf Coast of the United States later this week.

Tropical depression Nine was the former tropical disturbance 99L.

The center of this system is about 180 miles west of Key West, Florida.

Continue reading at AccuWeather: Tropical Depression 9 to Target US Gulf Coast Late this Week

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By Courtney Spamer

In the Western Pacific, Tropical Depression 9W may become the next typhoon in the wake of once-Super Typhoon Neoguri.

Tropical Storm 9W was upgraded from its tropical depression status early on Friday, but it has recently lost organization and is now a tropical depression once again.

However, it should move into a more conducive environment for strengthening, and may eventually become Typhoon Rammasun.

The above image is of Tropical Depression 9W from satellite on Saturday morning, local time in the Pacific Ocean. Imagery courtesy of NOAA

The system will continue to move westward away from Guam through the weekend and into next week.

If it does indeed hold together, it will be in the vicinity of Luzon, Philippines, on Wednesday or Thursday.

If the storm remains at typhoon strength, locals in the Philippines will need to brace for extreme winds and heavy, torrential rainfall that could lead to mudslides.

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Meteorologists in the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center will be monitoring this strengthening storm in anticipation of its possible effects in the Philippines and, eventually, into China.

AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Dave Samuhel contributed to the content of this story.

More at AccuWeather: Tropical Depression 09W May Become Next Typhoon

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The first tropical depression of the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season formed off the east coast of Florida early on Monday night.

Not only is the system likely to become the first tropical storm of the season but the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center projects the system could also become the season’s first hurricane.

The first name on the list of tropical storms and hurricanes for the 2014 Atlantic season is Arthur.

This system is forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm and drift northward along the East Coast during the next couple of days, spreading rough surf, gusty thunderstorms and locally drenching downpours.

The storm battled dry air and wind shear (disruptive winds) on Monday east of Florida and north of the Bahamas but was beginning to overcome the obstacles to development.

According to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski, “As the dry air and wind shear diminish this week, there will be room for the system to organize, strengthen and drift northward.”

How nasty the weather gets on the Atlantic coast will depend on the track and strength of the system as it passes by. There is a possibility of a period of heavy rain, gusty thunderstorms and building surf.

People heading to the beaches on the Atlantic coast from Florida to southern New England can expect a couple of days on average of rough weather and surf.

“This is a situation where the surf and strong rip current risk builds over a few days as the system strengthens and begins to track northward,” Kottlowski said.

For people heading to Daytona Beach and Jacksonville Beach, Florida, northward to South Carolina’s Grand Strand, expect building surf on Tuesday, Wednesday and into Thursday.

Farther north along North Carolina’s Outer Banks, the worst conditions will be on Thursday into Friday. The worst conditions are likely to be on Thursday night into Friday around Delmarva and New Jersey and during the day Friday into Friday night over Long Island and Cape Cod, Massachusetts.

From parts of eastern North Carolina to southeastern Virginia, Delmarva, New Jersey, Long Island and on Cape Cod, there is the potential for coastal flooding at times of high tide within 12 hours of the center of the system passing by, even if the center was to stay offshore. As the system is passing this part of the coastline, it could be a hurricane.

“The system, which is forecast to attain tropical storm status and could become a hurricane, will hug the coast and could even make landfall in North Carolina before turning out to the Northeast late in the week,” Kottlowski said.

To make the matter more complex, a front drifting in from the Midwest may stall for a while along the Atlantic Seaboard. The front will produce severe weather and the risk of tornadoes in part of the Midwest into Tuesday.

According to AccuWeather Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok, “As tropical moisture interacts with the front, very heavy downpours may erupt along the I-95 corridor late in the week.”

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Dry air is likely to be drawn in soon after the system passes by. Odds favor sunshine late this week over much of Florida, Georgia and South Carolina.

“If the tropical system takes a northeastward turn late in the week, as we suspect, rain and thunderstorms will begin to shift eastward and out to sea Friday afternoon and evening so that the weather improves for fireworks Friday night from Washington, D.C., to Philadelphia and New York City,” Pastelok said.

There is a threat of rain on Friday night for Boston and in parts of southeastern New England.

There is a slight chance the system may stall along the Carolina coast late in the week, which would not only delay clearing, but could keep the threat of showers and thunderstorms beyond the daylight hours on Friday.

Interests along the Atlantic coast will need to monitor the track and intensity of the budding tropical system this week. AccuWeather.com will continue to provide updates.

Meanwhile, in the Eastern Pacific, Douglas and Elida were spinning to the southeast of Mexico.

Content above, contributed by Kristina Pydynowski, senior meteorologist.

More at AccuWeather: Arthur May Bear Down on North Carolina as Hurricane

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While obstacles lie in its path, an area of low pressure off the Southeast coast will attempt to end the void of organized tropical systems in the Atlantic Basin this week.

The AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center is keeping a close eye on an area of low pressure tracking south-southwestward toward the Florida Peninsula.

The low is currently fighting dry air from the north and wind shear, strong winds at high speeds over the middle layers of the atmosphere.

“These winds can prevent tropical systems from forming, limit intensification or lead to their demise,” stated AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.

The low is expected to reach or make its closest approach to the eastern coast of Florida later on Monday or Tuesday, leading to enhanced thunderstorm activity across the central and South Florida Peninsula these two days regardless of development.

The resultant locally flooding downpours and gusty thunderstorms could foil vacation plans in Orlando.

The low being monitored for possible tropical development was captured in this satellite image midday Sunday EDT.

At midweek, there are indications that the low will turn back to the north and spend the second half of the week tracking near or off the coast of the Carolinas.

If the wind shear can diminish enough and the low stays far enough away from land, the window may open for the first tropical depression of the Atlantic to form this week.

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The Atlantic waters offshore of the Southeast are sufficiently warm enough for tropical development.

However, AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Evan Duffey states that the prospect of development is not a guarantee.

“I feel this system has a lot more going against it than it has going for it with dry air working in from the north and the wind shear never really relaxes as much as what I would like to see for development,” Duffey said.

Even if development takes place, Duffey feels that it will remain a rather small and compact system with at most moderate tropical storm strength.

The Florida Peninsula could see a further increase in heavy and gusty thunderstorms if the low becomes a depression near the state’s east coast.

Residents and visitors headed to the beaches of the Carolinas later this week should monitor the low for potential impacts as the Independence Day holiday approaches.

The low could stir up dangerous surf along the Southeast coast if it develops and strengthens. That would be the case even if the low remains well offshore.

Latest indications point toward the cold front set to sweep through the Northeast later this week directing the system away from the Northeast coast.

“Across the remainder of the Atlantic, the train of tropical waves continues to be battered by choking dry air and Saharan dust from the north,” Duffey added.

This hurricane season marks the first time since 2004 that a tropical depression or storm has failed to develop before July. The long-term average for the Atlantic Basin’s first named tropical storm is July 9.

The first named tropical storm in the Atlantic this year would acquire the name “Arthur.”

The formation of Arthur will commence what AccuWeather.com Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski feels will evolve into a below-normal Atlantic Hurricane Season.

However, Kottlowski stresses that coastal residents should not let their guard down.

“All we need is one hurricane,” Kottlowski said. “Just because we are saying this is going to be an inactive season doesn’t mean we couldn’t have a couple of very intense hurricanes.”

“All it takes is one storm or hurricane to ruin your vacation or your property.”

Meanwhile, the eastern Pacific has come alive with the formation of Tropical Depression Four-E and the development of another tropical system possibly in the works.

More at AccuWeather: Tropics Trying to Come Alive Near Southeast US

By Eric Leister

Tropical Depression 32W developed east of Vietnam on Thursday night, local time, and has since moved inland and transitioned into a tropical rainstorm.

The threat of heavy rainfall will continue for the next few days as the rainstorm moves to the west.

This tropical rainstorm passed over the typhoon-ravaged Philippines Tuesday and Wednesday, slowing the recovery and relief efforts from Super Typhoon Haiyan. Rainfall averaged (25-75 mm) over the southern and central Philippines from this system with local amounts up to 150 mm (6 inches).

Despite moving westward away from Vietnam, lingering moisture and a strong onshore flow will continue to produce locally heavy rainfall even as the rainstorm moves further away.

Rounds of moderate to heavy rain will total 50-100 mm (2-4 inches from southern Vietnam into southern Thailand, including Bangkok. Heavier rainfall will average 100-200 mm (4-8 inches) near Hue and upslope areas of central Vietnam with local amounts in excess of 300 mm (12 inches).

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Even though this rainstorm will remain south of the path Haiyan took to Ha Noi and into southern China, flooding remains a threat. Many tropical systems have already impacted this area in November, leaving the ground quite saturated.

Luckily, the minimal strength of this rainstorm will limit the threat for any damaging winds across the region. – AccuWeather

Meteorologist Courtney Spamer contributed to this story.

An area of showers and thunderstorms currently moving across the Bay of Bengal is becoming better organized and may become a named tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours.

These showers and thunderstorms are associated with former Tropical Depression 30W that brought heavy rainfall to the Philippines then Indochina over the past 10 days.

Now over the warm waters of the Bay of Bengal, these showers and thunderstorms are becoming more organized around an area of low pressure.

A satellite image of the Bay of Bengal showing showers and thunderstorms east of India on Tuesday, courtesy of of UW-CIMSS.

As this area of unsettled weather continues to track westward, it is expected to organize further with the potential to reach tropical storm strength before reaching the eastern coastline of India.

Areas from Vedaranyam northward through Cuddalore and Chennai to near Chirala could receive rainfall from this potential tropical cyclone. The heaviest rainfall will depend on the exact track of the system but is expected from later Friday through the weekend.

The heaviest rainfall will likely average 75-150 mm (3-6 inches) with localized amounts of 250 mm (10 inches). This amount of rainfall will lead to the threat of widespread flooding and mudslides. Any damaging winds appear to be limited to coastal areas near where this potential storm would make landfall.

Areas that were hit by deadly cyclone Phailin earlier this year will be spared from any significant impacts this time around. – AccuWeather

By Andy Mussoline

A tropical disturbance moving from the western Caribbean toward southeastern Mexico has become Tropical Depression Two.

The system will unleash torrential rainfall and the potential for flooding and mudslides in the region.

Tropical downpours from northern Nicaragua and northern Honduras and Belize to southeastern Mexico can easily produce several inches of rain in a short amount of time.

Two-day rainfall, as of Monday morning, in Honduras includes 5.64 inches in La Ceiba and 4.26 inches in Trujillo.

Proximity to land (less than 60 miles) is expected to limit much development before it reaches Belize Monday afternoon. However, plenty of warm water on either side of the peninsula is available to the system and may sustain it somewhat after making landfall.

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The system is forecast return to warm water Tuesday into Wednesday, as it drifts over part of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. As a result, the potential for development will increase, prior to a second landfall over the Mexico mainland.

The second name on the list of tropical storms in the Atlantic Basin for 2013 is Barry.

Beyond Wednesday, most tropical rains should move inland (westward) over Mexico.

There is a chance that some of the moisture from the system is funneled into part of south and west Texas late in the week well after the second landfall.

Expert Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski contributed to the content of this story.

More at AccuWeather-Tropical Depression Forms in the Western Caribbean.