By Dan DePodwin
The typhoon train in the Western Pacific will persist into the weekend as one typhoon has formed and another could blossom this weekend.
This season, 25 named tropical storms and 11 typhoons have churned through the basin. Over the next week, the Philippines, Vietnam and Japan may be impacted by a tropical cyclone.
Typhoon Expected to Blast the Philippines
Typhoon Nari formed Thursday and it continues to move west toward the northern Philippines. Favorable conditions such as low wind shear and very warm ocean water temperatures will promote strengthening into Friday.
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The storm is expected to lash the northern Philippines Friday into Saturday. AccuWeather.com Senior Metorologist Jim Andrews points out, “Destructive, hurricane-force winds, flooding rains and an inundating storm surge will be possible, especially near a potential landfall in northeastern Luzon Island. ”
AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Rob Richards adds, “Sustained winds can top 110 km/hour (70 mph) with gusts to 160 km/hour (100 mph). Rain amounts can be 100 to 200 mm (4 to 8 inches) with up to 300 mm (12 inches) in mountainous areas. Mudslides could occur.”
Flooding rainfall has inundated parts of the Philippines over the last several months, directly and indirectly related to other tropical systems. A return of torrential downpours is not welcome news.
Manila has been hit especially hard by flooding and is at risk again. AccuWeather.com International Meteorologist Eric Wanenchak mentions, “a track north of Manila favors the heavy rain to fall on the back side of the storm once the center has passed.”
After plowing through the Philippines, the cyclone is expected to emerge into the South China Sea and head toward the Vietnam coast. It is likely that it will make a second landfall in Vietnam early next week, possibly as a typhoon.
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Slow-Moving, Strengthening Storm to Threaten Japan
To the east of Typhoon Nari, another storm near Guam is in its initial stages and is expected to become a tropical storm then a typhoon by the weekend.
As with Typhoon Nari, the area of disturbed weather near Guam is in an area ripe for development. Very warm water temperatures, plentiful moisture and a lack of wind shear will contribute to strengthening.
Weak steering winds will prevent this new storm from moving very quickly. A slow track to the north is anticipated through the week and into the weekend as it gains strength.
By early next week, AccuWeather.com meteorologists believe it will be located south and east of Japan. Whether or not the typhoon makes a direct hit on the country depends on a cold front sweeping through northeastern China. If the front is a little slower, the cyclone could make a run at the east coast of Japan.
No matter the exact track, gusty northerly winds will buffet Japan early next week. Residents along the east coast of the country should continue to monitor this situation through the week.
This storm would be named Wipha when it attains tropical storm status. – AccuWeather