Tropical Cyclone Nilofar will be far from the dangerous cyclone it strengthened into earlier this week when it impacts India and Pakistan, but localized downpours are still a threat, however.
Nilofar reached its peak intensity on Tuesday with maximum sustained winds of nearly 215 kph (135 mph), making Nilofar a very severe cyclonic storm and the equivalent of a minimal Category 4 hurricane in the eastern Pacific or Atlantic basins.
Nilofar is now losing its battle with disruptive wind shear (strong winds above the surface) and will continue to dramatically weaken through Friday.
The cyclone will eventually become very disorganized with its showers and thunderstorms getting drawn away from its center.
That shower and thunderstorm activity will stream across far southeastern Pakistan, including Karachi and Hyderabad, and India’s northern Gujarat state Thursday night and Friday.
Widespread life-threatening flooding rain is not anticipated. However, localized downpours can still occur and cause isolated flash flooding.
The greatest opportunity for the downpours will come if Nilofar’s center manages to follow the showers and thunderstorms into Pakistan and India.
Even if this occurs, these areas will escape widespread damaging winds as the cyclone would weaken to a tropical depression before moving inland.
It is also possible that Nilofar’s center could get left behind in the northeastern Arabian Sea through at least the weekend. In this scenario, Nilofar’s center will become nothing more than a swirl of clouds with a few showers and wind less than 40 kph (25 mph) by Sunday.
Despite Nilofar rapidly weakening, rough seas will continue to create dangerous conditions for boaters in the northern Arabian Sea through Friday. Hazards for swimmers will also exist along the coasts of Oman, eastern Iran, Pakistan and northwestern India.
The rough seas danger will diminish this weekend with Nilofar.