Stromboli (Eolian Islands, Italy): (2 Oct) Yesterday’s lava overflow has established a new channel for the ongoing lava flow now along the upper northern part of Sciara del Fuoco, closer to the escarpment and more visible from the 400 m webcam. The previously active flow in the central part of the Sciara is now inactive.
Bardarbunga (Iceland): Eruptive activity at the Holuhraun fissure continues with little changes. Large amounts of lava continue to erupt from the active fissure vents. Lava fountains are now mostly hidden inside the growing cinder cones along the fissure.
SO2 gas output remains very significant – IMO estimates that 35,000 tons per day are being released each day into the atmosphere, producing a gas plume typically drifting eastwards and affecting air quality in eastern Iceland.
The caldera of Bardarbunga central volcano continues to subside at approx. 0.5 m per day, presumably as a result of magma draining from underneath there into the dyke, totaling more than 30 m so far – a process now often called “slow caldera collapse”. Earthquake activity overall has decreased, but is still present under the northern extrusive dyke.
No one can predict the future development of this large and unusual eruption: The most likely scenarios are that 1) it might go on for a while to come, gradually decrease; 2) it could result in catastrophic collapse of the caldera with a resulting potentially large explosive eruption there; 3) it could open new eruptive fissures above the intrusion, possibly under the ice and cause large floods and ash emissions.