By Ken Jorgustin
The alarming global (potential) spread of smallpox is revealed in a research study published in Scientific Reports which considers human mobility patterns in it’s findings.
Using a large-scale population model, they simulated the global spread of smallpox after an intentional release event, which showed that potential outbreaks can occur in different continents even before the detection of the pathogen release…
In the report titled, “Human mobility and the worldwide impact of intentional localized highly pathogenic virus release”, it states the following:
In recent years, public health officials have been increasingly alert to the possibility of biological weapon use through an act of bioterrorism.
Among potential pathogenic agents, smallpox poses one of the greatest risks.
While smallpox has been eradicated in 1980, many experts believe that smallpox virus could exist outside the official institutes in the US and Russia.
The smallpox virus is highly pathogenic, and its intentional release into a population that is now largely susceptible can create a tremendous amount of social disruption and fatality.
-Nature Publishing Group, Scientific Reports
One of the significant takeaways from the report is encompassed in a statement by one of the study researchers, Alessandro Vespignani, who said,
“Before you even realize there is an outbreak, it might already be in other places. That changes the game;” “The problem is that most of those studies (previous studies) don’t consider the global dimensions of the event.”
In one scenario, five individuals successfully infect themselves with the virus in a major Western metropolis (London). These individuals move freely within the city (avoiding detection) and expose civilians to infection. The five individuals follow a deliberate release strategy and do not attempt international travel in order to limit the possibility of detection and they do not seek medical care. In the model, those agents follow just local mobility and keep on transmitting the disease.
Within 7 days, nearly 10 countries are affected. In two weeks, nearly..Continue Reading at Modern Survival Blog: Smallpox Virus – Intentional Release And Potential Spread